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JFrog Ltd (FROG)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered solid top-line and profitability: revenue $103.0M (+22% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 13.2%, non-GAAP EPS $0.15; cloud revenue $39.3M (+42% YoY) reaching 38% of total .
  • Guidance reset: Q3 revenue $105–$106M; FY24 revenue $422–$424M, non-GAAP EPS $0.54–$0.56; FY cloud growth now “around 40%” vs prior mid‑40s, and FY net dollar retention expected “mid-teens” vs high‑teens previously due to slower migrations and rigid procurement .
  • Strategic momentum: deep GitHub integration and Qwak AI acquisition position JFrog as unified DevOps, Security and MLOps platform; Enterprise+ mix rose to 50% of revenue (+500 bps YoY) and $1M+ ARR customers reached 42 (+75% YoY) .
  • Cash and execution: RPO $272.0M; OCF $16.7M; FCF $16.0M; cash and investments $591.3M as of 6/30/24, supporting continued investment in security/AI while maintaining discipline .
  • Likely stock reaction catalysts: guidance cut (cloud growth and FY revenue/OP), delayed security monetization to 2025, vs. strategic positives (GitHub, Qwak) and durable platform adoption signal .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Platform adoption and enterprise mix expanded: Enterprise+ subscriptions rose to 50% of revenue (+500 bps YoY); $1M+ ARR customers reached 42 (+75% YoY), reflecting successful outbound enterprise motion .
  • Cloud growth remained strong despite headwinds: $39.3M cloud revenue (+42% YoY), now 38% of total; management cited migrations’ uplift (20–80%) when they occur and strong multi-cloud demand .
  • Strategic partnerships and AI expansion: announced deep integration with Microsoft GitHub; acquired Qwak AI to unify DevOps, Security and MLOps; customers (e.g., AT&T, Admiral) validate value proposition and security differentiators .

Quote: “With the innovative power of our Qwak AI acquisition, JFrog proudly stands as the first to support DevOps, Security, and MLOps in a single platform.” — CEO Shlomi Ben Haim .

What Went Wrong

  • Guidance reduction and momentum moderation: FY24 revenue cut to $422–$424M (from $425.5–$429.5M) and cloud growth tempered to ~40% amid delayed migrations, monthly usage softness, and rigid procurement .
  • Security revenue timing pushed out: material revenue contribution from Advanced Security and Curation now anticipated in 2025 due to higher TCV deals requiring longer PoCs/procurement cycles .
  • Monthly cloud subscribers weighed on growth: management quantified a 2–3 pt drag from monthly, non‑commitment cloud customers; fewer Q4 true‑ups expected versus 2023, reducing a potential tailwind .

Financial Results

Core Financials vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$97.3 $100.3 $103.0
GAAP Gross Margin (%)79.0% 79.5% 78.8%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)84.6% 85.1% 84.4%
GAAP Operating Margin (%)(15.8%) (16.6%) (18.6%)
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (%)16.6% 14.0% 13.2%
GAAP EPS ($)($0.11) ($0.08) ($0.13)
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.19 $0.16 $0.15

Notes: YoY revenue growth: Q4 +27% , Q1 +26% , Q2 +22% .

Segment Mix and KPIs

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Cloud Revenue ($M)$36.0 $36.9 $39.3
Cloud % of Total37% 37% 38%
Self-Managed Revenue ($M)$63.4 $63.8
Net Dollar Retention (TTM)119% 118% 118%
Gross Retention97% 97%
Customers >$100K ARR886 911 928
Customers >$1M ARR37 40 42
Enterprise+ % of Revenue49% 49% 50%
Remaining Performance Obligations ($M)$259.8 $261.7 $272.0
Cash & Investments ($M)$545.0 $579.6 $591.3
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$32.6 $17.5 $16.7
Free Cash Flow ($M)$32.0 $16.6 $16.0

Results vs Estimates

MetricQ2 2024 ActualQ2 2024 S&P Global ConsensusDelta
Revenue ($USD Millions)$103.0 N/A (Unavailable)N/A
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.15 N/A (Unavailable)N/A

S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at time of writing due to data access constraints. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q3 2024N/A$105–$106 New
Non-GAAP Op Income ($M)Q3 2024N/A$10–$11 New
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q3 2024N/A$0.09–$0.11 (≈115M shares) New
Revenue ($M)FY 2024$425.5–$429.5 $422–$424 Lowered
Non-GAAP Op Income ($M)FY 2024$56–$58 $52–$54 Lowered
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)FY 2024$0.59–$0.61 $0.54–$0.56 Lowered
Cloud Revenue Growth (YoY)FY 2024Mid‑40s ~40% Lowered
Net Dollar Retention (TTM)FY 2024High‑teens Mid‑teens Lowered

Management commentary: reduction driven by delayed migrations, softer monthly cloud consumption, and procurement rigidity; material security revenue now expected in 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’23, Q1’24)Current Period (Q2’24)Trend
AI/MLOps platformFlagged as potential tailwind; integrations with MLflow and Qwak; ML models treated as packages Qwak acquisition closed in early Q3; JFrog positions as unified DevOps, Security & MLOps platform Accelerating platform scope
Cloud growth & migrationsQ4 cloud +59%; FY24 baseline mid‑40s cloud growth; Q1 cloud +47% with digestion Q2 cloud +42%; FY cloud ~40%; derisked large migrations given macro; monthly usage headwind Decelerating growth, delayed migrations
Security consolidationEnterprise+ mix up in Q4/Q1; strong pipeline and consolidation narrative Material security revenue pushed to 2025; higher TCV PoCs lengthen cycles Pipeline strong, revenue timing pushed out
Macro/purchasingQ1 digestion, budget caution and seasonality Abrupt deterioration end of Q2/into July; rigid procurement across geos/segments Worsened into early Q3
Partnerships/ecosystemAWS SageMaker integration; MLflow/Qwak integrations Deep GitHub integration; enterprise demand for unified code/binaries workflow; Copilot tie-ins Deepening, strategic
Gross marginNon-GAAP GM 84.6% (Q4); improved in Q1 (85.1%) from cost synergies 84.4% (Q2); reiterated 83–84% near term, trending to low‑80s long term with cloud mix Stable high-80s, slight drift lower

Management Commentary

  • Strategic platform vision: “We are on a mission to revolutionize the software industry with a unified platform that encompasses EveryOps… first to support DevOps, Security, and MLOps in a single platform.” — CEO .
  • Enterprise momentum with higher ASPs: outbound enterprise motion increased ASPs; retention 97% highlights durability .
  • Cloud dynamics: “Monthly subscribers… around 2 to 3 percentage points” headwind; migration uplift 20–80% when they occur .
  • Guidance rationale: derisked pipeline given macro change, rigid purchasing environment; FY cloud growth reset to ~40%; fewer Q4 true‑ups vs 2023 .
  • GitHub integration impact: customer‑driven unified experience, security and AI collaboration expected to be a differentiator, with next phase unveiled at swampUP .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro shift timing: demand deteriorated in final days of Q2 and markedly in July; large strategic deals pushed out, prompting guidance reset .
  • Cloud growth composition: 2–3 pts impact from monthly subscribers lacking commitments; derisked migrations and expansion on renewals in H2 .
  • True‑ups: moving customers to monthly “use it or lose it” implies fewer Q4 true‑ups versus 2023; not contemplated in guidance .
  • Security monetization: higher TCV consolidations extend PoCs/procurement; material revenue now anticipated in 2025 despite strong pipeline and GitHub tie‑ins .
  • Competitive posture: management sees macro/procurement, not competitive displacement; 97% retention and GitHub partnership bolster confidence .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2024 revenue and EPS, and for Q3/FY24 were unavailable due to data access limitations at time of drafting; consequently, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus. Results were within the company’s prior guidance ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • FY24 guide reset reflects pragmatism: revenue, operating income, and EPS lowered; cloud growth moderated to ~40% and NDR to mid‑teens, driven by delayed migrations and rigid procurement—expect continued scrutiny on H2 execution .
  • Durable enterprise adoption: Enterprise+ mix at 50% and $1M+ ARR customers up 75% YoY signal platform consolidation tailwinds that should support medium‑term growth .
  • Security and AI are strategic but back‑end weighted: pipeline strong, but monetization pushed to 2025; watch swampUP updates on GitHub Advanced Security and Qwak integration as potential narrative catalysts .
  • Cash/FCF provide flexibility: $591.3M cash/investments and positive FCF enable continued investment in security/MLOps while maintaining operating discipline .
  • Near‑term trading: sentiment likely hinges on migration re‑acceleration evidence and monthly cloud usage stabilization; absence of Q4 true‑ups vs 2023 reduces year‑end optionality .
  • Medium‑term thesis: unified DevOps/Security/MLOps platform with deep GitHub ecosystem positioning, strong enterprise retention/mix, and expanding AI use cases support durable growth once procurement cycles normalize .
  • Monitoring items: cloud mix/margins trajectory (toward low‑80s over time), Enterprise+ mix, security attach rates, and RPO growth as forward indicators .

Other Relevant Q2 Press Releases

  • Qwak AI acquisition: definitive agreement announced June 25 to expand JFrog into unified DevOps, Security, and MLOps; integration underway, with technology and talent assimilation roadmap .
  • Board appointment: Unity CFO Luis Visoso joined the Board (Audit Committee), adding cloud/security leadership experience and financial acumen .